Sunday, 15 February 2015

Waste of space: Joe Hockey’s budget megafail all Abbott’s fault

Waste of space: Joe Hockey’s budget megafail all Abbott’s fault

 
DUMB TREASURER , DUMBER PM



74 0



The most hypocritical government in Australian history?


Why has the Abbott Government’s first budget crashed so
spectacularly? Can the damage be repaired? In the first part of a
two part series, Alan Austin examines the Government's wasteful spending.




Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first budget by has failed on several levels.
It has not generated enough revenue. It has allowed extraordinary waste.
It has attempted to shift the burden from the middle and the wealthy to
the poor. And it has invited global derision.




These failures are entirely the Government’s fault. Attempts to blame
Labor, Greens, PUP, independents or anyone else are spurious.




Here is a wasteful spending Top 40. It is not exhaustive:



1. $8.8 billion given to the Reserve Bank



 The Bank said this was not needed. Treasury said it was not advisable. Michael Pascoe claims this was a trick to make Hockey look good.



2. Border protection



The excessive cost, including of disposable orange life boats, is impossible to measure precisely. It is multiple tens of millions per year.



3. Offshore refugee processing



According to the government's own Commission of Audit, it costs
$400,000 a year to hold an asylum seeker offshore, $239,000 in
detention in Australia, but only around $40,000 on a bridging visa in
the community while claims are processed.




This is the fastest growing area of government expenditure with costs
over the forward estimates projected above $10 billion. About 90 per
cent is wasted. 




4. High Court case on eligibility for a protection visa



The Government comprehensively lost last week. The exercise was a monumental waste of time, money and human resources.



5. Profligate Cambodia refugee deal



Australia pays $40 million per year plus all extra costs. For what?
Cambodia ‘might take in between two and five people under the pilot
phase’. Resettlement in Australia would be far less expensive and more
humane.






6. Military engagement in Iraq



Annual cost at least $500 million.



7. Anti-terrorism



An extra $630 million has gone to security agencies to deal with the threat of "home-grown terrorism" which Australia’s involvement in Iraq foments.



8. F-35 joint strike fighters



$12.4 billion has been allocated for these problem-plagued American stealth jets. Not the most cost effective option.



9. Marble for Canberra buildings



Defence is spending more than $500,000 on marble panelling. Carrara marble, from Italy.



10. Other bizarre defence outlays



These include celebrity speakers and a full tendering process to acquire a multipurpose knife for camping out.



11. Futile search for missing Malaysian aircraft 370



 Estimated at $1 million per day.



12. Royal commission into the pink batts



This vindictive political witch-hunt cost an estimated $20 million,
discovered nothing new and failed completely to explore the real
questions demanding answers.




13. Royal commission into trade unions



Another political vendetta squandered an estimated $61 million.



14. Direct Action Plan



This pays some businesses to reduce carbon emissions but frees others to increase theirs. The waste is about $2.55 billion over four years, plus costs incurred thereafter.





15. Religion



Money is now available to train priests and other religious workers and for school chaplains, while funding for non-religious counsellors is cut.



16. Pseudo-sciences



Federal funds are now available for homeopathy and Bach flower therapy.



17. Abbott’s new car



His $500,000 bullet-proof BMW is part of a $6.2 million outlay, vastly more than for Australian-made alternatives.



18. Travel expenses for ministers, staff and families



These have been rorted
shamelessly, with flights to a wedding claimed. Total blow-out is
unknown because the Government is withholding the information.




19. VIP jets instead of commercial flights



Ministers spent about $900,000 in just two months
in late 2013. Education Minister Christopher Pyne’s blithe assertion
that VIP jets were “probably cheaper” was shown to be blatantly false by an ABC fact check.




20. Jobs for Liberal mates



High salaries were secured for Sophie Mirabella, Tim Wilson, Alexander Downer and others.



21. Salary for nothing



A department axed by the Government continued to pay the top bureaucrat $7,000 a week for months until another role was eventually found.



22. Public service hand-outs



Fat cats receive outrageous bonuses on top of already bloated salaries.



23. Lease termination



Charges of $65,000 were incurred when Abbott refused to live in the Forrest house rented for him during the 2013 election caretaker period.





24. The Lodge



Lavish renovations costing a staggering $6.38 million were approved in December. That is double the original estimate and more than the cost of demolition and rebuild.



25. Department of Industry and Science



$10,827 went on a coffee table.



26. G20 table



Treasury spent $36,005 on a conference table for the November summit in Brisbane.



27. Table transport



That conference table was made in the ACT. So the Government spent another $26,298 shipping it to Brisbane. Why did the tender not stipulate assembly in Brisbane?



28. Chairs



After the table had been built and transported to Queensland, chairs were also bought in the ACT – for a staggering $68,525.



29. Koalas



$24,000 was then blown in a few minutes of G20 koala diplomacy.



30. High tech theatrette



Taxpayers paid almost $330,000 in September 2013 for a Canberra space
for Scott Morrison’s border protection briefings. It was fitted out,
including with an $800 door knob, but not used. Briefings were held in
Sydney until discontinued in December 2013.




31. Perks for MPs



These include $15,442 for Attorney-General George Brandis’ bookcase.



32. ‘Obscene’ long lunches



Joe Hockey spent $50,000 to fly a celebrity chef to Washington to cook one meal.





George Brandis is among other offenders.



33. Abbott’s 3-day PR exercise in Arnhem Land



This cost a poultice but achieved only disruption to an already stressed community. The Yolngu would have benefitted far more had Abbott stayed in Canberra and not slashed $534 million from their meagre programs.



34. Asset sell-offs



$11.7 million is available to prepare privatisation
of Defence Housing Australia, the Canberra mint and other
income-generating assets. With interest rates so low, this is the time
to buy and build assets, not sell them off. A double waste.




35. Focus groups



$500,000 was spent to help sell – unsuccessfully – changes to higher education funding.



36. Media blitz



Trying to defend the widely resented university changes cost $14.6 million.



37. Damage control



The strategic communications branch of the PM’s department employs 37 spin doctors
in a forlorn attempt to polish the PM’s image. Cost to the taxpayer:
$4.3 million per year. That is on top of the 95 communications staff
engaged on border control, costing at least $8 million annually, and many other spin merchants elsewhere.




38. News media monitoring



According to Fairfax, just seven departments spent $1.2 million on "market research" in four months last year.



39. Interest on government debt



This is up from $12.2 billion in 2012-13 to $14.7 billion in 2014. With more to come.



40. Commission of Audit



And finally, as if to underscore this administration’s grinding
incompetence, the commission set up to help cut Government waste not
only utterly failed there, but blew out its own $1 million budget by 150%.






They are just some areas of waste on the spending side. Outcomes have
been just as dismal on the revenue side, perhaps even more destructive.
Those failures and whether this Government can possibly fix things will
be examined in part two, coming soon.




Alan thanks colleagues Sandi Keane and Lyn Bender for valuable input into this series. You can follow Alan on Twitter @AlanTheAmazing.



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Saturday, 14 February 2015

The strange case of the smiling car salesman and the trillion dollar deficit. - The AIM Network

The strange case of the smiling car salesman and the trillion dollar deficit. - The AIM Network

THE MATHS CHALLENGED JOE DUD HOCKEY






The strange case of the smiling car salesman and the trillion dollar deficit.









Not content spewing forth the ubiquitous puerile bovine excretum from the pages of Labor’s debt and deficit disaster and other mandatory slogans,
Treasurer Joe Hockey last week apparently took complete leave of his
senses, going off-script and announcing to the world that Australia
would soon face a trillion dollar deficit. That’s right, $1 trillion. By
2037, based on our current debt trajectory, we will owe one thousand
billion dollars.



Give me strength.


The comment is absurd on so many levels and for so many reasons. The
idea that Australia needs to balance its budget or risk burdening future
generations with insupportable debt is utter nonsense for starters.
Australia is a monetary sovereign. WE PRINT OUR OWN MONEY. As long as we
don’t borrow in a foreign currency or go back to a fixed exchange rate,
Australia cannot run out of
money. The only way we can go broke is if inflation gets out of control,
or demand for goods and services overtakes supply.



I realise this idea may be difficult for some to come to terms with,
so let’s leave this aside for the time being and examine Hockey’s claim
at face value. $1 trillion sounds like an awful lot of money. The
announcement was no doubt intended to shock, but it shouldn’t, really.
Hockey’s argument is fallacious. Never mind the fact that the he has
doubled the deficit in a mere 16 months in office, nor that our ‘current
debt trajectory’ cannot be described in any meaningful way; The fallacy
is not in the figure itself, but in how we are meant to interpret it.
Hockey’s forecast doesn’t allow for inflation, nor is the amount
properly expressed as a percentage of GDP, which by my quick reckoning
would put it at significantly less than it is today.



Statistical analysis is bat-shit boring for most of us, so let’s just
look at some simple data points for illustration. 2037 is 22 years
away, a calculation which Mr. Hockey might find justifiably challenging
using just his fingers, but having achieved modestly in maths at public
school I was able to work this out in my head. Using the magical google
machine I was also able to dig up some relevant credible facts and
figures.



In 1993 Australia’s GDP was $312bn USD. In 2014 Australia’s GDP was
$1.52 trillion USD. That is 500% growth over a 22 year period.



In 1993 average weekly earnings were $AUD 592. In 2014 the indicator more than doubled to $AUD 1445.


I don’t expect someone of Hockey’s political stripes to be fully
caught up on modern monetary theory, but that’s not the point. Surely
it’s a reasonable expectation that someone appointed to the high office
of treasurer should not to be so challenged by simple arithmetic? If
you’re going to make projections 20 years into the future, would you not
look back at the last 20 years? Even according to the Liberal book of supply-side economics and associated lies and half truths,
a $1 trillion dollar deficit in 22 years time is unlikely to exceed
today’s 29% of GDP. For the love of god, strong liquor and loose women,
can somebody please hand the man a calculator?



I realise I have glossed over a lot here. There are plenty of numbers
that show how income inequality has increased over the last 22 years,
whether it be the obscene salaries of CEOs, or a hyper-inflated property
market pouring money into the pockets of the already wealthy. This does
not bode well for future growth. The mining boom is over. Primary
production will not carry us into the future. Coal and iron ore are a
dead end. Austerity is the path to poverty. Investing in redundant and
outmoded technologies is counterproductive. Good economic stewardship
requires investment in science, technology and innovation. People are
the most precious of all resources. Ultimately it is demand and not
supply which will create jobs. And a hundred million other gratuitously
poignant platitudes.



I was going to use this post as an opportunity to rant about zombie
economics and argue the case for bigger deficits and smarter spending,
but the more I think about this latest retarded outburst from our
dumb-as-shit treasurer, the more inclined I am to bang my head
repeatedly on the desk in front of me and lose my train of thought.



No doubt under Hockey’s mismanagement Australia could be expected to
go broke in a very short while. But not for the reasons he argues. To go
back to my earlier point, Australia can and will run out of money if
demand for goods and services outstrips supply. That’s why we need to
invest today in infrastructure to deliver goods and services efficiently
into the future. With the bond rate parked near 2% it’s a perfect time
to ‘borrow’ money to fund, say, 10 year projects. Of course I’m thinking
of projects like a full-fibre NBN (and I could argue at length why this
should take precedence over an 8 lane intra-city expressway.) The
greater shame tho is that our governments nowadays don’t seem to stick
around long enough to see these projects through. But I digress.



2014 saw car manufacturing leave our shores forever, leaving a $20bn
hole in the economy and up to 100 000 jobs on the chopping block. Holden
had asked for $500m to continue building cars in Australia, a paltry
sum for a guarantee of direct employment for 400 engineers and 2500
factory workers, plus indirectly providing jobs for tens of thousands in
the supply chain. Before being less than politely shown the door by our
smiling used-car-salesman-in-chief last February, Holden had promised
as a condition of ongoing funding to produce two new models by 2018.
Surely I am not the only one who greeted the release of the Chevrolet
Volt at this year’s Detroit Auto Show with a raised eyebrow? With
electric vehicle charging stations already being rolled out across our
major cities, perhaps Mr Hockey would care to tell us how shutting down
Australian car manufacturing was in our long term best interest, and why
he put a free trade agreement with Korea ahead of 100 000 Australian
jobs?



Don’t talk to me about intergenerational theft, Mr Hockey. If
Australia finds itself unable to service a debt burden roughly
equivalent to today’s in 20 years time, it won’t be Labor’s fault. It
will be the fault of the short-sighted economic vandals who bled the
country dry and failed to invest in innovation and jobs right now.



For more on the subject of the deficit red herring, see this excellent article from Kay Rollinson:


http://theaimn.com/debt-and-deficit-duplicity/



Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Hockey on the Ropes - The AIM Network

Hockey on the Ropes - The AIM Network



Hockey on the Ropes














Have you noticed that Joe Hockey has been doing
the rounds of radio, television and print lately, moaning and groaning
about his problems with the senate? It appears the penny has finally
dropped and he wasn’t wearing steel plated boots. Ouch!



Back in December 2013 and again in February 2014, I wrote that it was unlikely that Joe Hockey would ever deliver a surplus budget. Finally, it seems, he agrees.
“If we can’t continue to reduce government expenditure we’ll
never get back to surplus, we’ll never be able to pay our bills, we’ll
never be able to live within our means,”
the Treasurer told 3AW from Canberra.



The first bit was right. As for never paying our bills and never being
able to live within our means, well, that’s just childish. There will
never be a time when we, as a monopoly currency issuer, could not pay
our bills.



The deficits will continue to rise, however, and sit around $50
billion a year as revenue continues to fall. The budget savings held up
in the senate are a trickle compared with what is needed. They total an
average of $7 billion a year over the forward estimates.



mitchell“And sooner or later we will run out of other peoples’ money,”
he told Neil Mitchell in the same interview. Well, if he continues to
think that we won’t be able to pay our bills and that we will run out of
money, he should be replaced. It suggests he doesn’t know how we pay
our bills.



He also made the rather extraordinary claim that it was, “fundamentally unfair for us to have a lifestyle today that our children will never have”.
What rubbish! Just whose children is he referring to? I suspect that
when Joe Hockey’s children inherit his family fortune, they will have a
much better lifestyle than he does today.



But for the children of the rest of us, well, that depends on how much
debt they accumulate; private debt that is, not public debt. At the
moment, private debt is the big worry. It is at record levels and
threatens to undermine any chance of enhancing our way of life.



It was Peter Costello’s much lauded surpluses that drove us toward record levels of private debt.


Joe isn’t bad at making emotive styled comments in public as if
trying to tug at our heart strings. But if he is so determined to rein
in spending, he has been told time several times he should focus on tax
expenditures like superannuation concessions, private health insurance
rebates, mining subsidies and the like. This is where the big savings
can be made.



So given the facts, his concern for our children must be taken with a grain of salt.


Interestingly though, on the savings issue, the government is now
pleading with Labor to help them through this difficult time. Labor have
said they are more than willing to help if the focus is shifted toward
tax expenditures. Why doesn’t the Treasurer engage with them?



chalmersDr Jim Chalmers, Labor opposition spokesperson for trade and investment said, “We’re
all up for a proper conversation about fiscal responsibility, but we’re
not up for a conversation that asks the most vulnerable people in
Australia to carry the heaviest load.”



Hockey has a simple choice here. Had he chosen the right one on
budget night last May, he might well have been a leadership contender
today. But he didn’t, and he isn’t. He chose to protect the big end of
town at the expense of the most vulnerable.



Just like his boss, all his problems have been of his own making.













Friday, 5 December 2014

Joe’s economic story just doesn’t add up –

Joe’s economic story just doesn’t add up –

Joe’s economic story just doesn’t add up



Voters aren’t buying Joe Hockey’s economic narrative. It could be because it just doesn’t stack up.








If you try following the logic of Treasurer Joe Hockey’s
economic arguments, you very quickly see why the government is failing
to get its key messages through and has spent much of the year in a mess
of its own creation.



The essence of the Hockey narrative for much of the year is
this: Labor left an appalling fiscal legacy, but the economy is too weak
for a stringent and dramatic return to surplus, so the budget was about
putting medium-term savings and structural reforms in place that would
begin the fiscal repair task, while infrastructure spending would
provide the immediate stimulus required to spur growth. But Labor,
vandals that they are, are both opposing those medium-term savings and,
as if their evil knows no bounds, trying to sabotage infrastructure
spending through their opposition to asset recycling, designed to get
the state governments spending. And Labor, so the narrative goes, even
dawdled on free trade agreements, which will deliver a big benefit to
the economy over the medium-term.



Hockey has remained wedded to this narrative even after
Wednesday’s terrible GDP number — indeed, for Hockey the evidence of
softness in the economy reinforces the need for Labor to support asset
recycling and encourage Premier Daniel Andrews to build the East West
Link (although Hockey has opened the door to other big projects Andrews
might want to bring forward, provided they can get started pronto).
Hockey, like Wayne Swan, says he won’t be “chasing down” falling revenue
in the forthcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.



But the Hockey narrative doesn’t stand up to the simplest
scrutiny. For starters, Hockey himself actually made the budget
situation significantly worse. Between the election and the end of 2013,
the government took decisions that worsened the deficit by more than
$20 billion over four years. It dumped the carbon price, a move which
the 2013-14 MYEFO
acknowledged would cost $6.3 billion in lost revenue. It dumped the
mining tax, which MYEFO acknowledged would cost $3.4 billion. And it
walked away from a series of tax and superannuation measures already
announced by Labor that cost $3.6 billion in lost revenue.



Each of those figures is just for forward estimates — they
were all ongoing measures. As revenue sources, they might go up or down,
but they were built into the budget — the carbon price might have
fallen in line with international trends, and the fall in iron ore and
coal prices would have reduced mining tax revenue this year, but the
removal of some superannuation tax concessions was designed to provide
long-term savings that would make a substantial difference a decade
hence.



Then there was the $8.8 billion handout to the Reserve Bank, a one-off that substantially worsened the 2013-14 deficit.


So when Hockey laments that Labor is blocking his
“medium-term” fiscal repair job, he hopes voters will ignore that he
made that job substantially harder himself, purely for political
reasons — especially the grossly irresponsible act of walking away from
measures like ending the Fringe Benefits Tax novated lease rort, and the
tax on superannuation incomes over $100,000, which his predecessors had
already announced and worn the political pain from. Hockey has not
merely wasted the Coalition’s political capital, he chucked away
measures Labor has burnt political capital on for the good of the
budget.



Then there’s what Hockey calls his plan to “significantly
increase infrastructure spending over the next few years” — the
equivalent of eight Snowy Mountains Schemes, he likes to boast. As a
number of commentators have pointed out, in fact the government is
simply spending on the projects it inherited from Labor, albeit with a
greater bias towards roads, which self-confessed Luddite Tony Abbott
seems to think is all that 21st century infrastructure involves. Given
infrastructure lead times, whatever stimulus is delivered to the economy
over the next 12 months will be entirely because of former
infrastructure minister Anthony Albanese and Labor, and not because of
Abbott, Hockey or Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss.



And as we know from the Productivity Commission, free trade
agreements are good for diverting trade, but their actual economic
benefits are far harder to identify, if they ever materialise at all.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for a Chinese consumer-led recovery.



That leaves Hockey urging consumers to spend up big for
Christmas in order to give the economy a shot in the arm — while warning
of the terrible damage Labor is doing to the economy and the budget.



In opposition, Hockey long insisted the mere election of the
Coalition would provide a surge of business and consumer confidence
that would spark higher economic growth and get the animal spirits of
the economy stirring. If it ever did, Hockey killed all that off himself
with his budget communication strategy. Now he’s left with Plan B that
consists of wishing consumers a merry Christmas.



No wonder the dogs are barking about his job.

Saturday, 27 September 2014

Abbott and Hockey’s debt and deficit disaster

Abbott and Hockey’s debt and deficit disaster



14


The Abbott Government has abandoned any pre-election
promises to reduce Australian public debt, with borrowing and interest
costs skyrocketing after their first year in power. Alan Austin reports.








Despite all their rhetoric and hyperbole, both debt and deficit has blown out under the Abbott Government (Image via @qldaah)



THE ABBOTT GOVERNMENT HAS ABANDONED all pre-election commitments to reduce the nation’s ‘skyrocketing debt’. Borrowings have increased dramatically since the last election.



Now we know by how much.



Debt has increased by 13.7% over Labor’s levels. Interest payments
have risen a staggering 28.6% to more than thirty million dollars per
day — in just the first nine months.




The Final Budget Outcome 2013-14 was released this week by Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.
Buried in the long-awaited document is confirmation that net government
debt at the end of June, nine months after the Coalition took office,
has risen to $202.46 billion.








That’s quite a blow-out.



The last monthly Finance Department report prepared under the previous Labor Government, for 31 August 2013, showed forecast end of year net debt at $178.10 billion.



The following monthly report,
September 2013, prepared after the Coalition had taken charge, also
showed projected year-end debt steady at $178.10 bn. So did the October
and November reports.








In December, however, following several decisions by the incoming
treasurer, including abolishing the debt ceiling, the debt projection jumped to $191.52 billion.




This number was reaffirmed in January, February, March and April 2014. In May, it was increased to $197.85 billion. Then, without notice, monthly reports ceased.



Clearly, the actual outcome under the Coalition is a cool $24.36 billion more debt than forecast had Labor stayed on. Up 13.7%.



Hockey has, of course, attempted to blame Labor:



‘The Final Budget Outcome for the 2013-14 financial year is a
budget report card on the previous Government’s irresponsible fiscal and
economic management.’





Hardly. Mr Hockey has had more than 42 weeks – and a clear mandate –
to reverse anything ‘irresponsible’. Instead, wasteful spending has
increased, including dubious travel for ministers and their entourages, costly royal visits and expensive politically-motivated royal commissions.








Table 5
of this week’s Treasury document shows that in just seven weeks between
the May budget and June 30, expenditure on ‘legislative and executive
affairs’ blew out by a staggering $68 million.




That was not Labor’s doing.



Other unjustifiable spending by the Abbott Government includes its punitive border protection regime and an $8.8 billion grant paid to the Reserve Bank that it didn’t ask for and doesn’t need.
On the revenue side, equally damaging failures include abolishing the
carbon and mining taxes without adequate replacement income. Those were
not Labor decisions.




This week’s proof of the debt expansion follows confirmation after
the May budget that Abbott and Hockey had more than doubled the
projected budget deficits over Labor’s levels.




ABC Fact Check unit showed in June that government decisions increased the deficits for the four-year forward estimates period by more than $68 billion.





Clearly, there is no commitment whatsoever to



‘… balance the books, live within our means and return the budget to surplus as quickly as possible.’




Gone are the dire warnings before the last election of debt ‘spiralling out of control’.



So if the debt was more than $202 billion in June and rising rapidly,
what is it now, three months later? Well, we just don’t know. The debt reports produced monthly since December 1999 have suddenly stopped.




Independent Australia asked the Finance Department why this was and when the next statement would be released.



They replied:



‘The last Australian Government Monthly Financial Statements were
published in May 2014. The June data is incorporated in the Final
Budget Outcome document. Under the Charter of Budget Honesty Act 1998
the final date for the release of the Final Budget Outcome is 30
September.... The July and August 2014 Australian Government Monthly
Financial Statements are prepared and published after the release of the
Final Budget Outcome.’





How long after? We shall see.



Meanwhile, we now know what the extra debt is costing. A year ago, the Final Budget Outcome
for 2012-13, released by incoming treasurer Hockey, showed net interest
payments on the debt were $8.3 billion for that year – the last full
year Labor managed the economy. Labor’s projected interest bill for
2013-14 was then $8.4 billion, according to Treasury and Finance’s
Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook.




The actual interest costs incurred for 2013-14, we discovered this week, was a thumping $10.8 billion. That’s up 28.6%.







So Hockey is not just borrowing more money, but borrowing more expensive money.



Of course, this debt increase is of no immediate economic concern provided the investments are well-managed. There are compelling arguments
that Australia’s debt has been too low given negative real interest
rates and the opportunity for investments in productive infrastructure.




Australia’s debt to GDP ratio is a mere 12.8% — even with the recent
Hockey blow-out. If that were doubled Australia’s debt would still be
less than Switzerland’s. If tripled it would be less than Canada’s. It could be multiplied by six and remain lower than Germany’s and the UK’s.




All these countries have a triple A credit rating and hence no discernible debt problem. And, of course, neither does Australia.



Australia does have, however, a surplus of government hypocrisy and a deficit in truthfulness and competence.



You can follow Alan Austin on Twitter @AlanTheAmazing.



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